02-25-2012, 01:13 AM
(This post was last modified: 02-25-2012, 02:09 AM by G.Subramaniam.)
Errors in PISA 2009 Indian scores - part 1
---
For reference I am comparing this against the World Bank report 'Indian Shining, Bharat Drowning'
Making an accurate sample is very difficult in Indian populations, due to effects of caste and poverty
However, I am assuming that the World bank report sampling has not been gerrymandered
In Math, the TIMMS score is as follows
Orissa Avg = 404
Rajasthan Avg = 382
For reference,
Iran Avg = 411
Philippines Avg = 378
Norway = 461
Per Avg scores, these states show up as lower-middle income countries
--
If we move from Avg scores to High International Benchmark Scores of 550
In Iran, 3% cross this level
In Philippines 3% cross this level
In Orissa, 9% cross this level
In Rajasthan, 4% cross this level
In Norway, 10% cross this level
--
So at the Avg Level, these states look like Iran and Philippines, at the High end, they look like Norway
--
The Average Indian scores like Iran, and the Top Indians score like Norway, there is a very distinct High End IQ bulge that is absent in countries with the same Average score
--
At the bottom end,
Orissa 5th percentile = 240
Rajasthan 5th percentile = 220,
At the bottom end, these states look like black Africans
--
Lets now look at the PISA Math scores for TN and HP
TN - 5th percentile = 241
HP - 5th percentile = 223
TN - 50th percentile = 351
HP - 50th percentile = 338
TN - 95th percentile = 468
HP - 95th percentile = 458
--
If we compare the TIMMS for Orissa and Rajasthan vs PISA for HP and TN, we notice that the bottom end is identical
The mean has shifted down by 50 points and the top end has shifted down by 100 points.
--
Next we will investigate why the mean and top-end have down-shifted
One explanation is that per the WIPRO report, TN has the worst, most dumbed down state curriculum and TN scores below the Indian Average, while Orissa despite being much poorer scores near the top for all Indian states, in Govt schools
---
For reference I am comparing this against the World Bank report 'Indian Shining, Bharat Drowning'
Making an accurate sample is very difficult in Indian populations, due to effects of caste and poverty
However, I am assuming that the World bank report sampling has not been gerrymandered
In Math, the TIMMS score is as follows
Orissa Avg = 404
Rajasthan Avg = 382
For reference,
Iran Avg = 411
Philippines Avg = 378
Norway = 461
Per Avg scores, these states show up as lower-middle income countries
--
If we move from Avg scores to High International Benchmark Scores of 550
In Iran, 3% cross this level
In Philippines 3% cross this level
In Orissa, 9% cross this level
In Rajasthan, 4% cross this level
In Norway, 10% cross this level
--
So at the Avg Level, these states look like Iran and Philippines, at the High end, they look like Norway
--
The Average Indian scores like Iran, and the Top Indians score like Norway, there is a very distinct High End IQ bulge that is absent in countries with the same Average score
--
At the bottom end,
Orissa 5th percentile = 240
Rajasthan 5th percentile = 220,
At the bottom end, these states look like black Africans
--
Lets now look at the PISA Math scores for TN and HP
TN - 5th percentile = 241
HP - 5th percentile = 223
TN - 50th percentile = 351
HP - 50th percentile = 338
TN - 95th percentile = 468
HP - 95th percentile = 458
--
If we compare the TIMMS for Orissa and Rajasthan vs PISA for HP and TN, we notice that the bottom end is identical
The mean has shifted down by 50 points and the top end has shifted down by 100 points.
--
Next we will investigate why the mean and top-end have down-shifted
One explanation is that per the WIPRO report, TN has the worst, most dumbed down state curriculum and TN scores below the Indian Average, while Orissa despite being much poorer scores near the top for all Indian states, in Govt schools

